Markets

⚠️ US-Iran Tensions De-Escalate

The US and Iran have agreed to halt tit-for-tat attacks that erupted over the weekend, enabling peace talks to continue. Markets are breathing a sigh of relief — this is why futures are green this morning despite last week's tech wreck.

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MARKET SNAPSHOT

US Futures (Pre-Market):

• S&P 500: +0.7%
• Dow Jones: +0.5%
• Nasdaq 100: +1.1% (leading the recovery)

Last Week's Damage:

• Nasdaq: -4.6%
• S&P 500: -2.0%
• Dow: -0.8%
• Healthcare (XLV): +7.3% (week's winner)

Key Levels:

• 10-Year Treasury: ~4.45%
• VIX: Moderating from last week's spike
• WTI Crude: Down on reduced Mideast risk premium
• Bitcoin: Stabilizing after last week's volatility

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TODAY'S CALENDAR

Holiday-shortened week ahead (July 4th Friday)

Monday 6/30:

• Chicago PMI (9:45 AM ET)
• Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM ET)

Tuesday 7/1:

• ISM Manufacturing (10:00 AM ET)
• Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET)

Wednesday 7/2:

• ADP Employment (8:15 AM ET)
• FOMC Minutes (2:00 PM ET)
• Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET)

Thursday 7/3:

• Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)
• ISM Services (10:00 AM ET)
• Markets close early (1:00 PM ET)

Friday 7/4:

• Markets Closed — Independence Day

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TOP 5 HEADLINES

Both nations have agreed to halt attacks that escalated over the weekend, reducing immediate geopolitical risk. Markets responded instantly — crude pulled back and risk appetite returned. Why it matters: Removes a major overhang that could have derailed the holiday week. Watch for follow-through on the diplomatic track.

Comcast will spin off NBCUniversal and Sky into a separate publicly traded company. Stock surged on the news. Why it matters: Continues the media industry's unbundling trend. Value unlock for shareholders, but raises questions about streaming economics.

RBC Capital Markets now sees the S&P at 8,150 over the next 12 months, citing resilient earnings and supportive macro conditions. Why it matters: Street remains bullish despite last week's selloff. Earnings strength continues to justify valuations.

Despite the bounce, underlying concerns about AI-related costs persist. Apple's recent pricing moves highlight margin pressures across the tech supply chain. Why it matters: The "AI spending bubble" narrative hasn't gone away — watch for more color in upcoming earnings calls.

Markets still pricing in at least one more Fed rate hike despite last week's volatility. This week's FOMC Minutes (Wednesday) and jobs data will be key. Why it matters: Don't expect the Fed put to save the day if inflation stays sticky.

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